Crossbow Newsletter April 2018

- Bevorstehenden Regimewechsel an den Märkten und die Möglichkeit der Diversifikation durch aktive Manager
- Produktideen im Bereich Alternative Beta and Risk Premia
- Studien zu alternativen Anlagen: «Profitieren Hedge Funds von öffentlichen Informationen?» und «Erträge des Aktiven Managements im Falle von Hedge Funds
- Rückblick auf unseren Event vom Mittwoch, 2. Mai 2018 zum Thema „Robotics, Drones and Automation

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Trip Report London March 2018

If you would like to receive the entire Trip Report, including the Manager Reports of the 10 visited funds, please drop an email to Markus Moser (mm@cb-partners.com).

The trip to London focussed on multi-manager funds, macro / trading funds and alternative risk premia funds

Multi-manager funds have proven themselves to be alternatives to fund of hedge funds because of their diverse nature and centralized risk management while size, culture and risk framework are differentiating factors

Macro / trading hedge funds view the sharp sell-off in February mostly as technical or behavioural in nature as macro-economic fundamentals did not warrant the speed and magnitude of the market’s reaction

Hedge funds reduced directionality across all strategies, as gross and net exposures have come off recent highs, while the outlook is more muddled, mostly due to policy and geo-political uncertainty on the rise

Alternative beta is gaining traction as a less costly way to access alternative risk premia, which have academically been an element of certain hedge fund strategies

 

 

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The Market Navigator April 2018

Summary: We have entered a late cycle environment in which volatility typically starts to rise. Global growth has likely peaked, but will remain above trend for some time. Stimulus is being reduced, and interest rates have started to rise. Inflation concerns, trade war fears and and slightly slowing growth raise fears of stagflation. The higher volatility regime could roll over into an extended correction. Later
during the year, we might see another substantial «late» upleg in risk assets. A global recession seems unlikely to start before late 2019.

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Crossbow Event: Robotics, Drones, Automation — Investments in Megatrends

Was? Megatrends erkennen und Investitionsmöglichkeiten finden
Wann? Mittwoch, 2. Mai, 2018 ab 16:00 Uhr
Wo? Zunfthaus zur Waag, Münsterhof 8, 8001 Zürich

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Trip Report New York November 2017

If you would like to receive the entire Trip Report, including the Manager Reports of the 19 visited funds, please drop an email to Markus Moser (mm@cb-partners.com).

Summary:

Most managers are trimming their equity exposures as the current rally is pushing valuations to high levels and it becomes easier to find attractive shorts

USD 1.5 trillion bond supply will have to be absorbed by private investors in 2018 which will lead to higher yields and a steeper yield curve

Short-term interest rates in the US should be 300 basis points higher compared to previous cycles, but this may not happen this time as the governments remain the largest debtors

Long-term interest rates however will be driven higher by up-trending inflation numbers which will also support higher commodity prices

Convertible bonds had a difficult time in the extreme low volatility environment of 2017, but could revive in a more volatile 2018

Geopolitical tensions are increasing in the Middle East, but also between Russia, China, Europe and the USA on trade issues

The USD is expected to strengthen on an inflation surprise that can be expected in 2018, but will longer-term weaken based on strongly increasing debt deficits in the coming years

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David Friche joins Crossbow Partners AG

David Friche joined Crossbow Partners AG on February 1, 2018 as a partner and senior analyst for macro strategies. We are strengthening our team as we believe that traditional assets are becoming expensive and will only produce small returns, if any, over the coming years. Alternative investment funds, in particular macro and relative value strategies, will be in a position to outperform and will bring uncorrelated, trading-oriented investment products back to the limelight.

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Crossbow Newsletter January 2018

- "House of Cards....?" - Spezialbericht zum Marktumfeld

- China: Vom Imitator zum Innovator

- Akademischer Streit um Faktorbasiertes Investieren

- Überdenken der Rolle von Alternativen Anlagen innerhalb der Asset Allokation

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Trip Report Hong Kong November 2017

Deregulation creates plenty of new opportunities in China, Hong Kong, India, and Japan (such as the Connect stock trades; the opening of the domestic bond market in China; the introduction of single stock futures in India; or the focus on shareholder value in Japan, etc.)

Dispersion in Asian stocks is on average about 1’000 bps higher than in developed markets and MiFID II will further reduce research coverage of small and mid caps, favouring active managers with stock picking skills

The current market environment in China is very conducive for stock pickers, as dispersion is high, industries are consolidating and the economy is reflating, while national champions are being created

Environmental protection is a top priority of the Chinese government and has shifted the focus from growth to environmental concerns and capacity rationalization, promising a better structural balance in various sectors and leading to a reflationary momentum in the economy

Despite the recent equity market rally Chinese stocks still offer decent upside return over the medium term, as market’s equity premium continues to be high by historical standards and markets have not yet fully factored in the potential fruits from structural reforms and the trend to better capital discipline and usage

China is now opening up the domestic bond markets to foreign investors who will, initially, primarily target high quality bonds and, possibly, “fallen angels”, but not yet high yield bonds as long as liquidity does not improve and regular defaults do not create forced sellers and dislocations

If you would like to receive the entire Trip Report, including the Manager Reports of the 13 visited funds, please drop an email to Markus Moser (mm@cb-partners.com).

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Conference Trip Report Toyko Oktober 2017

Well organized and well attended conference with 65 hedge funds presenting and 150 investors attending.

Shinzo Abe’s re-election was very welcomed by the markets, as the Nikkei gained 16 days in a row – the longest streak ever – and reached a 26-year high.

Since Abenomics started, most of the stock market advance has been driven by earnings growth while multiples have contracted.

Japanese companies are adopting a more investor friendly western style approach with a strong focus on profitability and return on equity.

There are very strong secular growth opportunities in Japan that can be found in the small and mid-cap space.

The re-election of President Xi Jinping at the recently concluded 19th Party Congress bodes well for a continuation of reform in the Chinese economy.

The Chinese government re-emphasized its commitment to focus on the quality of economic growth, reform the state-owned sector, continue to open up the economy, invest in innovation and combat pollution and climate change.

If you would like to receive the entire Trip Report, including the Manager Reports of the 19 visited funds, please drop an email to Markus Moser (mm@cb-partners.com).

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Trip Report New York September 2017

The imminent balance sheet reduction and the rate normalization process by the Fed will usher in a new interest rate and volatility regime, while synchronized global growth, strong corporate earnings and the prospects of a meaningful U.S. tax reform keep equity markets afloat for now

The Fed will be facing an unpleasant choice if tax reform, fiscal spending, deregulation, increasing funding costs and higher commodity prices create inflation on the back of an U.S. economy running at full employment

We are in the later stages of the credit cycle and spreads in HY bonds are approaching all-time tights, driven by a relentless hunt for yield, pushing more investors in riskier and less liquid assets with asymmetrical risk/reward profiles

High yield and distressed managers are struggling in this environment, as shorting nearly anything in credit has been difficult this year

U.S. equity managers are constructive, as the global macro backdrop looks good, tax reform will happen, earnings and consumer spending are up, wage growth is muted, and markets are not excessively overvalued at 18x earnings

Biotech managers are upbeat about their sector, as the pace of innovation remains high, outflows have stopped, valuations are attractive (below the S&P 500 level), while the new head of the FDA is very accommodative and M&A activity is picking up

Technology managers are excited about the confluence of trends and the disruptive impact that they will have on almost all industries, creating a universe of secular winners and losers, even though some managers are concerned about valuations and investment behavior (“buy the dips”)

If you would like to receive the entire Trip Report, including the Manager Reports of the visited funds, please drop an email to Markus Moser (mm@cb-partners.com).

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